Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began
(Source: Pixabay)
氣象學家說，今年將是自紀錄以來世界上最熱的一年。他們估計，2020年將有可能打破四年前的紀錄，這一可能性高達50％至75％。
This year is on course to be the world’s hottest since measurements began, according to meteorologists, who estimate there is a 50% to 75% chance that 2020 will break the record set four years ago.
科學家說，儘管目前對冠狀病毒的封鎖暫時讓空氣層變乾淨了，但目前並沒有採取任何措施來冷卻氣候，這需要更深層次的長期措施。
Although the coronavirus lockdown has temporarily cleared the skies, it has done nothing to cool the climate, which needs deeper, longer-term measures, the scientists say.
自一月份以來，從南極到格陵蘭的熱記錄已經打破，這令許多科學家感到驚訝，因為這不是高溫造成的聖嬰現象，。
Heat records have been broken from the Antarctic to Greenland since January, which has surprised many scientists because this is not an El Niño year, the phenomenon usually associated with high temperatures.
美國國家海洋暨大氣總署估計，自測量開始以來，2020年會是最熱的一年，這一可能性為75％。
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculates there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began.
總署表示，正在密切追蹤2016年的當時記錄，當時由於聖嬰現象異常強烈，今年年初氣溫飆升，然後又下降了。
The US agency said trends were closely tracking the current record of 2016 when temperatures soared early in the year due to an unusually intense El Niño and then came down.
總署表示，2020年將成為有記錄以來氣溫最高的五年之一的可能性為99.9％。
The US agency said there was a 99.9% likelihood that 2020 will be one of the top five years for temperatures on record.
紐約國家航空航天局戈達德太空研究所所長Gavin Schmidt的另一項計算發現，今年有60％的機會創下新紀錄。
A separate calculation by Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found a 60% chance this year will set a record.
英國氣象局在評估此可能性上更加謹慎，說到2020年創下新紀錄的可能性為50％，儘管英國氣象局表示，今年將延續自2015年以來，創下最熱的時期的新紀錄。
The Met Office is more cautious, estimating a 50% likelihood that 2020 will set a new record, though the UK institution says this year will extend the run of warm years since 2015, which is the hottest period on record.
隨著溫度記錄逐年和逐月地下降，異常天氣越來越成為常態。
Abnormal weather is increasingly the norm as temperature records fall year after year and month after month.
今年1月是有記錄以來最熱的月份，許多北極國家的首都都沒有積雪。 2月，南極的一個研究基地在南部大陸首次記錄了超過攝氏20（華氏68）的溫度。在世界另一端，格陵蘭島的Qaanaaq在周日創下4月份攝氏6度的記錄。
This January was the hottest on record, leaving many Arctic nations without snow in their capital cities. In February, a research base in the Antarctic registered a temperature of more than 20C (68F) for the first time on the southern continent. At the other end of the world Qaanaaq, in Greenland, set an April record of 6C on Sunday.
在第一季度，熱浪在東歐和亞洲最為明顯，溫度比平均溫度高3℃。最近幾週，美國大部分地區悶熱。國家氣象局（National Weather Service）的數據顯示，上週五，洛杉磯市中心達到了4月的至高點34C。西澳大利亞州也經歷了創紀錄的高溫。
In the first quarter, the heating was most pronounced in eastern Europe and Asia, where temperatures were 3C above average. In recent weeks, large parts of the US have sweltered. Last Friday, downtown Los Angeles hit an April high of 34C, according to the National Weather Service. Western Australia has also experienced record heat.
在英國，這種趨勢不太明顯。到目前為止，4月份英國的每日最高溫度比平均溫度高3.1C，在Cornwall, Dyfed, 和Gwynedd均創下了記錄。
In the UK, the trend is less pronounced. The daily maximum UK temperature for April so far is 3.1C above average, with records set in Cornwall, Dyfed, and Gwynedd.
牛津大學氣候學家Karsten Haustein表示，全球變暖正接近工業化前水平的1.2C。他說，由於數據中的空白，他的線上追蹤器顯示相對較保守的1.14C，但是一旦結合了最新數據，溫度可能上升到1.17C或更高。
Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, said global warming was nudging closer to 1.2C above pre-industrial levels. He said his online tracker showed a relatively conservative level of 1.14C of warming due to gaps in the data, but that this could rise to 1.17C or higher once the latest figures were incorporated.
儘管病毒大流行至少暫時減少了新的排放量，但他說，大氣中溫室氣體的累積仍然是一個巨大的問題。
Although the pandemic has at least temporarily reduced the number of new emissions, he said the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere remains a huge concern.
Haustein 說：“氣候危機沒有減弱。” “今年的排放量將減少，但濃度仍在上升。我們不太可能注意到大氣中溫室氣體排放水平的任何下降可能性。但是，我們現在有機會重新考慮我們的選擇，並將此病毒危機用來當作促進可持續發展的運輸和能源生產方式的催化劑（通過激勵措施，稅收，碳價等）。”
“The climate crisis continues unabated,” Haustein said. “The emissions will go down this year, but the concentrations keep on rising. We are very unlikely to be able to notice any slowdown in the built-up of atmospheric GHG levels. But we have the unique chance now to reconsider our choices and use the corona crisis as a catalyst for more sustainable means of transport and energy production (via incentives, taxes, carbon prices, etc).”
英國氣象局發言人Grahame Madge對此表示贊同：“依靠科學並為政府和社會採取行動提供信息，以解決全球緊急情況，這正是解決下一次人類面臨的危機計劃所需要採取的措施。”
This was echoed by Grahame Madge, a climate spokesman for the Met Office: “A reliance and trust in science to inform action from governments and society to solve a global emergency are exactly the measures needed to seed in plans to solve the next crisis facing mankind: climate change.”
來源：英國衛報
Source: The Guardian
