Gerontologist Jay Olshansky’s views on human longevity have often sparked debate. Decades ago, he and his coauthors predicted that most children would live only to age 85, and only 1% to 5% might survive to their 100th birthday. Their findings, published recently in *Nature Aging*, reveal that Olshansky’s predictions were correct: rapid increases in life expectancy have slowed down. According to the study, only 5.1% of female children born in 2019 in countries like the US, Japan, and France will live to 100, while the figure is just 1.8% for males.
Olshansky emphasizes that although life expectancy is still rising, it’s at a slower pace than previous decades. He attributes this to the immutable process of aging, which medical interventions have not been able to overcome. While advancements in treating diseases like obesity and diabetes have improved health, they haven’t extended life expectancy as dramatically as once hoped.
The study suggests that combating one disease at a time is no longer enough. Future efforts should focus on extending *health span*, or the period of life spent in good health, rather than just lifespan. If aging is not addressed at a biological level, Olshansky warns, we may continue to face an increase in frailty and disability, trading off one set of diseases for another. “Life extension without health extension,” he says, “could be harmful.”
